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Among analysts and commentators who have been paying attention to the state of affairs in the Islamic Republic of Iran, there is widespread agreement that the fallout from recent protests, which spread to as many as 140 cities across the country, has only just begun.
The ongoing fallout takes two equally important forms. In the first place, the repression of those protests and the regime’s failure to address their economic, social and political demands means that public grievances are continuing to simmer and will certainly bubble to the surface again, perhaps with even greater intensity. Considering the unexpectedly bold slogans of the late December/early January demonstrations, including calls for the removal of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a resurgent uprising would pose a virtually unprecedented threat to the clerical regime.
This fact calls attention to the other aspect of the fallout: Tehran continues its widespread crackdown, targeting participants in the recent protests along with activists and dissidents of every stripe. By all accounts, this crackdown is worsening. While the regime initially claimed that only a few hundred had been arrested during the demonstrations, officials later on acknowledged nearly 4,000. Activists inside the country have monitored more than twice that number.
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